Domestic synthetic ammonia prices staged an unexpected rebound supported by reduced output, but downstream buyers remained reluctant to accept the elevated prices. Sluggish shipments from ammonia producers led to another significant price decline in major production areas after August began, with northern markets dropping by 100 yuan per ton daily, further accelerating the market's downward trend.

The current period remains a slow season for fertilizer demand from agriculture, with autumn fertilizer applications starting slowly and lacking substantial follow-through, highlighting the market's supply-demand imbalance. In the industrial sector, weak performance in caprolactam and acrylonitrile has heightened downstream resistance to elevated costs, prompting widespread production cuts and reduced operating rates. Weak demand has failed to absorb the price increases resulting from reduced output. As synthetic ammonia producers' inventory levels rise, new order pricing has begun to retreat and consolidate to facilitate smoother shipments.

On the supply side, maintenance support in Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Fujian during early August reduced daily supply by over 2,700 tons. Prices fell significantly, and after ammonia producers successfully reduced inventories, prices still had narrow rebound momentum. However, with the expected resumption of previously maintained facilities in mid-August, supply fluctuations across regions will lead to mixed price movements. Market supply changes warrant continued attention.

Late August may mark a turning point for the autumn market. Wheat fertilizer demand will emerge, boosting terminal stockpiling activity. Overall downstream fertilizer production is expected to increase, providing relatively favorable support for the synthetic ammonia market. Additionally, September's National Day military parade and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin may prompt production cuts in surrounding regions, following past precedents. Policy guidance warrants attention, as supply fluctuations in northern areas could further influence southern markets. Market supply-demand dynamics and adjustments will require ongoing monitoring.